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If We Sleep through Another Dozen Days, We'll Walk the Road to a Complete Humanitarian Catastrophe.


Here’s what the sociologist Tsvetozar Tomov wrote on his Facebook page.


The epidemiological situation in our country is already on the verge of becoming catastrophic. It is not only that by the number of confirmed cases per 100,000 yesterday, we have ranked among the top five countries in the world with a tendency to become leaders in this woeful ranking in the coming days. We are the only one of the worst affected countries where suspiciously few tests are being carried out. With 37% positive tests, we can be sure that the actual number of infected not only far exceeds confirmed cases, but with a fairly large probability is higher than anywhere else. Because Belgium, the Czech Republic and Switzerland - the countries for which the data are worse than ours - are testing many more people. Furthermore, we are the only one of the hard-hit countries where the number of deaths is increasing at the same rate.

Let me add that I also doubt the credibility of their reporting. The sensational case of the 33-year-old man, who, unfortunately, was beyond the help of the ambulance, is hardly the only one, and let me note that his death is not included in the statistics of deaths from coronavirus infection. 63 died on a single day when the total number of deaths per day, for whatever reason, did not exceed 300, which means that at least one in five people who died yesterday fell victim to the epidemic. Probably the reason lies in severely difficult access to hospital medical care and perhaps in its deteriorating quality. By mid-October, at least 15% of active cases were in hospital and this rate was stable throughout the course of the epidemic. This rate has been collapsing from day to day and is currently 7.77%. I find it hard to believe that in less than 3 weeks the activity of the pathogen has halved and has led to a double reduction in those in need of hospital treatment.

On the part of the authorities, we get chaotic measures that are massively not respected, spells and strange decisions - such as allowing an audience to a tennis tournament that was especially important, as well as frantic concerns about the fate of bars and discos. In July, at the beginning of the protest wave, the Prime Minister (let me wish him a speedy recovery) justified his reluctance to resign, saying that the current government is most prepared and responsible for taking the country out of the health and economic crisis. Now he reiterates he won't allow a second lockdown. To prevent the country from closing, the government should have developed meaningful scenarios for the course of the epidemic and warned the population under what circumstances a new lockdown was inevitable.

In fact, the only criterion announced in early May shortly before the state of emergency was lifted was that in over 100 confirmed cases for three consecutive days this would be necessary. We had over 4,000 confirmed cases yesterday without doing enough tests. I am almost certain that if we continue not to mobilize to combat this plague, we will have three consecutive days with over 100 people who died of the infection as early as November. Will the government take responsibility for the lost control of the epidemic? Are we ourselves able to realize what we can do to ourselves if we continue to treat this calamity gullibly? Isn't it time for extreme measures involving all responsible institutions in the country? I don't have an answer to those questions. But I think if we sleep through another ten days, we'll walk the path to a complete humanitarian catastrophe.

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