Банкеръ Weekly



Three countries from the Black Sea region - Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, will play a decisive role for the settlement of the wheat world prices this year. By increasing the amounts offered for export, they can provoke a chain price decline on both Bulgarian and world markets. The total amount of their export is expected to go beyond 20 million tons, which exceeds the export of Australia and Canada. Even the USA, the world leader in grain export, is expected to shrink its market share from 29 to 24 per cent.According to the latest data provided by the Russian agricultural ministry, Russia collected some 80 million tons of wheat. 3.4 million tons have been exported so far, and the whole export will certainly reach about 10 million tons. That figure will go close to the Russian record achieved in the 2002-2003 campaign when 16 million tons were exported. What is more, the export season is just beginning and there is plenty of time until next May. Experts claim that these three countries will account for about 18% of the world export, while some ten years ago they imported the product because of deficiency. These calculations affected the world grain markets immediately. Last week the futures traded on the Chicago Commodity Exchange fell down to USD128 per ton, an 11% drop compared to the levels registered as of March 15, 2005.

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